Modelling unplanned plant outages

It's not just forecast errors than can cause changes in intraday prices. Unplanned plant outages - where a plant becomes suddenly and unexpectedly unavailable - can also impact intraday prices.

We model unplanned outages using an outage year. We take the first 24 hours of all unplanned plant outages from our weather year (2018). These outages are then converted to a load factor for each technology, which allows us to roll the data forward to the forecast for each year. These unplanned outages are applied to our supply stacks before calculating intraday prices.