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Documentation for the Modo GB Forecast
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GB Methodology

  • Introduction to our forecasting
  • Inputs
    • Demand
      • Electric Vehicle Demand
      • Heat Pump Demand
    • Building the capacity stack
    • Capacity inputs
    • Hydrogen
    • Commodity pricing
    • Renewable load factors
    • Generation costs
    • Ancillary services
    • Storage
    • Interconnectors
    • Capacity Expansion Model
      • Cashflow calculation
      • Estimating capital and operating costs
      • New-build, Retrofit, and Retirement Decisions
  • Fundamentals model to 2050
    • Modelling thermal short run marginal costs
    • GB price, modelled without storage or interconnection
    • Modelling the storage fleet
    • Interconnection
    • Ancillary service pricing
    • The Capacity Market
    • Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS)
      • Embedded Export Tariffs
      • Wider generation TNUoS forecasts
    • Distribution Use of System (DUoS)
    • Intraday prices
      • Model intraday forecast errors
      • Modelling unplanned plant outages
      • Modelling other impacts to intraday pricing
  • Battery dispatch model
    • Modelling different dispatch strategies
    • Day-ahead and frequency response revenues
    • Assumptions in our dispatch model
    • Frequency Response market saturation
    • Intraday Revenues
      • Optimising battery dispatch in intraday markets
      • Assumptions behind intraday optimisation
    • Battery degradation
    • Solar co-located revenues
    • Balancing Reserve
  • Modelling the Balancing Mechanism
    • Transmission constraints in Great Britain
    • Modelling bid-offer prices
    • Battery revenues in the Balancing Mechanism
      • Modelling balancing volumes
      • Assessing competition within the Balancing Mechanism
      • Dispatch rates of batteries
      • Modelling battery optimisation within the BM
    • Locational differences in BM dispatch
  • Scenario modelling (worldviews)
  • Model calibration
  • Run library
  • Running a forecast
  • Location
  • Backtest
  • Forward curves
  • Bankability
  • Historic performance
  • Large >300MW BESS sites
  • Small <10MW BESS sites
  • Glossary
  • Frequently Asked Questions
    • FAQ: General
    • FAQ: Fundamentals model
    • FAQ: Dispatch model
    • FAQ: Network Charges
    • FAQ: Results
    • FAQ: Backtest and Calibration
    • FAQ: Model Update Livestreams
      • Q3 Model update V3.1
      • Q4 Model update V3.2
    • FAQ: Financing renewable assets
  • Standalone solar forecast
    • Solar generation profile
      • Modo generated P50 solar generation profile
      • Upload your own solar generation file
      • Capturing cannibalisation
    • Calculating solar revenues
      • Calculating performance metrics
      • Calculating lost revenues
      • Calculating total revenues
      • Output file glossary
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Modelling bid-offer prices

Updated 4 months ago


Transmission constraints in Great Britain
Battery revenues in the Balancing Mechanism