As well as updating the commodity prices, we have made some key under-the-hood changes to our fundamentals model that we're excited to share.

1. Supply stacks - now with far more thermal variation

• We have split our half-hourly supply stacks up into smaller chunks for thermal plants, to better reflect varying short-run marginal costs due to efficiency curves and ramp rates as well as different efficiencies within the fleet
• Impact: more price variation within a day, better reflecting historic prices (checkout Backtest)

2. Fleet storage - better dealing with price cannibalization

• Previously we had occasions where the fleet storage charging was causing price increases in the power price
• Fleet storage now responds to de-rated margin, has a strike price that reflects the cycling cost of the system, and is limited by how much volume can be dispatched at once.
• Impact: lower price spreads over the forecast horizon as storage cannibalizes significant spreads

3. Capacity build out determined by economics, moving away from the NESO Future Energy Scenarios as the major input

• New build, retrofit, and retirement of unabated gas CCGT, OCGT, peakers; and CCGT CCS; and battery storage have a build-out of capacity which responds to the economics of these plants
• The capacity market model has a carbon element post-2030. Volume procured - and price - responds to the minimum margin on the system
• Impact: our capacity build-out has changed since v2.4:
  • Extended CCGT retirements: 1.7GW of high efficiency unabated CCGT online in 2050
  • Higher CCS CCGT capacity by 2050: 7.3GW vs 6GW in v2.4
  • Slightly fewer batteries by 2050: 48GW vs 50GW in v2.4.

4. Other minor changes

• Wider generation TNUoS
  • Impact: transmission system BESS now face (usually) revenue line item from TNUoS, depending on which generation zone they are in. Available via custom run.
• REGO prices are included when getting the SRMC for solar and wind
  • Impact: solar and wind SRMC is reduced by around £7/MWh in the shorter term.
• Updated commodity prices - gas & carbon & hydrogen
  • Impact: 12% reduction in price and 10% in spread in 2024 with impact reducing later
• Demand inputs aligned to 2023 FES Consumer transformation scenario
  • Impact: higher demand after 2040 leads slightly higher average power prices at the back of the curve
• Derate day ahead trading capacity to reserve more battery capacity for the BM after 2027
  • Impact: higher overall revenues post-2027 as the batteries capture more value from the Balancing Mechanism
• Get national bid and offer prices by varying demand by 8% of the average annual demand rather than 10% of half-hourly demand. This was necessary to avoid very high bid-offer spreads post-2045.
  • Impact: Minor compared to v2.4, average bid-offer spreads remain consistent.

We have delayed the operational start date of Hinkley Point C, Sizewell C, and other Pressurised Water Reactors

• On January 23rd EDF announced a delay to Hinkley Point C's expected start date, from 2027-2028 to 2029-2031.
• We expect other new nuclear reactors to now face similar delays. We have pushed back the start date of Sizewell C to 2033-2036 and delayed other new Pressurised Water reactors by two years.

Operational nuclear capacity falls between 2027 and 2037

The nuclear build-out from v2.3 to v2.4 is shown below.

The delay in Hinkley Point C has a minor impact on storage revenues

In the years affected by the delay of Hinckley Point C (2027-2029), price spreads fall on average. This is because the shortfall in generation can be met mostly by increased CCGT generation or changes in interconnector flows. Most of the time, it makes the minimum price in the day higher, but the maximum price in the day is only slightly higher, as the energy is replaced by a slightly more inefficient CCGT. More on this here.

The fall in price spread causes a maximum 3% reduction in battery energy storage revenues in 2028.

Delays to nuclear buildout in 2030s have a more significant impact

Into the 2030s, the delay in nuclear buildout leads to an increase in price spreads. This is because of the reduced size of the CCGT fleet over time, which causes an increased frequency of price spikes in the years most affected by the change.

This increase in price spread leads to a maximum 8% increase in battery revenues in 2036.

Quarterly Forecast Pro update in Jan 2024 improves ancillary, balancing and wholesale revenue forecasts

• Changes to the Modo Battery Revenue forecast reflect the release of the Enduring Auction Capability (EAC) and increasing frequency response market saturation. Frequency response revenues are now lower.
• Improvements to the forecast of Balancing Mechanism (BM) actions for batteries lead to bigger locational differences in BM revenues in the Modo Battery Forecast. Some areas are higher, and some are lower than previously.
• We've also updated commodity prices - gas & carbon to reflect the latest data. This has pushed the spreads in our Power Price Forecast down by around 20% in 2024.
• We have updated the build-out of thermal gas plants. This has made a negligible change to the Power Price Forecast.

More on this below.

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We've updated our methodology pages to reflect these changes - check them out!

Frequency response prices have dropped significantly with the Enduring Auction Capability release in November 2023

• Changing bidding strategies with the new platform and auction clearing algorithm have driven down prices.
• Our updated frequency response price forecast takes the new relationship that's emerged between frequency response clearing price and wholesale day-ahead price.
• We also now allow frequency response prices to be negative - as seen in the market.

As dispatch rates in the BM improve with the Open Balancing Platform, revenues depend on transmission constraints

• We use supply, demand, current dispatch rates & future transmission build-out of wires and wind, as well as modeled BESS day-ahead positions, to estimate Balancing Mechanism revenues.
• There are now significant differences in BM revenues from region to region (which are each DNO) in BM revenues, and they change over time as the electricity system develops.

Frequency response volumes of a single site are limited depending on market size

• With increasing battery buildout, more batteries will compete to provide frequency response services.
• In the dispatch model, we limit the volume that a single battery site can provide in each service, depending on how big (ie how much MW volume) each service is.

Intraday revenues for the 'Merchant + Ancillaries' grow

• As the battery fleet grows at a faster rate than ancillary markets, each site does less frequency response.
• They will have more availability for intraday trading as a result, leading to increasing intraday revenues over time.

You can read about these changes in more detail in our methodology:

• Balancing Mechanism
• Frequency response prices
• Dispatch model with frequency response saturation
• Intraday revenues

N.B. - January 25th 2024 update

After releasing v2.3 of the Forecast model on 19th January 2024, we made a hotfix after further reviewing the numbers & after getting more information from the ESO during a visit to their control room. This impacts the Balancing Mechanism revenues in the first 3 years. We have now better incorporated the precise rollout dates along with our estimated impact of the steps within the Open Balancing Programme. This has brought BM revenues down in the first few years (and closer to reality). We refreshed the v2.3 forecasts in the BESS Revenue library on the 25th January. This change affected forecasts whereby the start date was 2024 and only the first 3 years were affected.

24th October 2022

At v2.2, we have made several additions to the forecast, both in the data available and in the dispatch model:

• Scenario Databook: For each Macro Scenario, Forecast Pro users can access a Scenario Databook, using a link contained within the run library download. This contains additional information about modelling assumptions (commodity prices, demand, generation) and results (wholesale and ancillary prices, carbon intensity, hours at VoL).
• Merchant only revenues: Each data download contains a second results table showing revenues for batteries following a 'Merchant only' strategy i.e. no Frequency Response. As battery buildout grows, more and more batteries the proportion of batteries providing Frequency Response will decrease. More batteries will follow a Merchant only strategy.
• Capture rates: We have applied capture rates to our dispatch model revenues to reflect imperfect price forecasting, battery unavailability and lack of perfect acceptance in Frequency Response markets. These capture rates are based on a historical analysis of Modo's battery Leaderboard data and asset performance. We model capture rate improving with time, with improving forecasting and optimization tools. We have added a page to our documentation that discusses this in more detail.

2nd October 2023

We've made a number of improvements to the model which make revenue figures for post-2035 lower in v2.1

We have improved on the FES build-out capacities to ensure less loss of load, particularly post-2035. This has brought the post-2035 battery revenue numbers down.

These changes are in:

1. How we calculate the short-run marginal cost of assets in the generation stack.

• We have variation in the short-run marginal cost within a single generator type to reflect differences in cost (driven by efficiency, for example). Eg., the lowest efficiency of the ‘low-efficiency CCGT’ has a higher cost than the most efficient of the ‘low-efficiency CCGT’. This mimics plant-level behaviour in the generation stack, without needing to model each individual plant on the system.
• A linear fit between each point of the supply stack provides this variation. We have changed how we calculate this fit, by taking the fit from the 'start' of each generator type - rather than the 'end'. The result is, that the cheapest plant within a generator type is now slightly higher and the jump between wind and gas now better reflects reality.
• The impact is that power prices are higher as we have boosted each short-run marginal cost up a type.

2. The future load factors of wind now have a higher minimum, a lower maximum, and a lower standard deviation.

• With more wind farms being built in wider geographic locations around the UK, the turbines getting bigger, and further out to sea, ‘capture rates’ or load factors will increase. While we had this increase in wind load factor in previous versions of the forecast, we still experienced occasional very low periods of wind, as well as periods at 100% load factor.
• We changed the wind forecast so there will be fewer periods with very low wind and fewer periods with 100% load factor, while maintaining the (increasing) average annual load factors. This better reflects the anticipated behaviour.
• The impact is we get fewer periods of very high prices, particularly in the early 2040’s, when very low wind periods were driving scarcity. And, the periods of high prices that we do have are shorter in duration - a few hours instead of 6 hours or more. This makes battery revenues lower in this period.

• BM prices are set by demand elasticity around wholesale prices. In times of scarcity, offer prices are particularly high. With fewer periods of very low wind resulting in fewer periods of scarcity, less money is made by offering up availability in the Balancing Mechanism in v2.1 of the model. Thus, in the merchant-only strategy, the revenues from BM trading are now less, and more in line with BM revenues in the ancillary+merchant strategy.
  • This has the effect of bringing merchant revenues and merchant+ancillary revenues closer together, particularly post 2035.

3. Impact of AR5 has reduced offshore wind buildout between 2028 and 2035

• We have delayed the offshore wind buildout to reflect the results of the recent AR5 auction, in which no offshore wind bid in for any Contracts for Difference.
• The impact is less wind generation between 2028 and 2033, with the pipeline finally catching up in 2035. This means slightly higher power prices during these years, with slightly increased battery revenues (but impact is minor).

4. Increased levels of Demand Side Response in the model

• With increasing levels of smart charging of electric vehicles and more domestic consumers participating in flexibility turn down services particularly, we have revised up the amount of demand side response in the capacity stack across the forecast horizon to 14GW by 2035 and 25GW in 2050. We have also decreased the prices of it from £3000/MWh, £1000/MWh and £500/MWh to £1500/MWh, £500/MWh and £250/MWh (for high, mid and low price DSR).
• Demand side response acts as a competitor to battery storage, and sits near the top of the generation stack. This has meant that there are fewer periods with loss of load and subsequent very high prices - and battery revenues are lower compared to v2.0, especially post-2035.

26th September 2023

There are some big changes to the Modo Forecast

We've just done a major release, moving from v1 to v2.

This includes sweeping changes to the way you interact with the forecast, and expanding on what scenarios and site configurations are available.

• We have added the forecast to the Modo platform, rather than being in an excel file.
• We have added a host of new site configurations, including co-location with solar sites.
• As well as the possibility to run a 'Custom Run' if none of the 600+ runs are quite right.

And, there are changes to the forecast numbers themselves:

• We updated our input numbers in line with FES 2023's release as v1 was using FES 2022.

You can now find a library of runs under 'Forecasting' on the platform

You can apply filters to quickly and easily find the site configuration and setup you'd like, and hit download.

There are over 600 runs to choose from

We now run the forecast in the cloud. What that means is we're able to run a huge number of different site setups, with different fundamentals models - many more than before!

Choose between 1, 2 and 4 hour duration batteries; a maximum of 1 or 2 cycles per day, the 14 different Distribution Network regions in GB, a distribution or transmission connection, degraded or not (and 3 different re-powering options with our standard degradation profile) and from our 8 different fundamental scenarios:

• Central
• Low (delayed CCGT retirement, reduced BM dispatch, increased demand response uptake, low gas and carbon prices)
• High (increased BM dispatch, reduced demand response uptake, high gas and carbon prices)

All files show merchant, ancillary + merchant revenues, split out by month, from 2023 - 2050, with the details of the scenario and site configuration at the top of the csv file.

And co-location is now one of them!

There are currently two runs in the run library of co-located revenues.

More information about the model used to estimate revnues from a site with solar and storage is in our methodology.

Custom runs are now possible

In case you can't find the site setup you're after in our standard run library, you can create a custom run.

This opens up a handy type form to tell us exactly what you'd like, and we'll take it from there.

Any questions with how to use a Custom Run? Reach out to our sales team - [email protected]

We've also updated our inputs to align with the FES 2023 release

ESO launched their 2023 Future Energy Scenarios in July 2023 so we've taken their updates to capacity build out, gas and carbon pricing, and demand from the 'Consumer Transformation' scenario and incorporated them into our model numbers.

• There is less biomass and gas CHP, and slightly less wind in the FES 2023 numbers, which has increased scarcity on the system in the early years of the forecast
• In later years, we have more hydrogen peakers and low-priced DSR
• This has the impact of higher scarcity, and therefore higher battery revenues to 2035. After that, revenues drop relative to v1.0 as more flexibility from hydrogen peakers and DSR in later years drives down battery revenues.

For example, this table shows the percent change in generator type going from FES '22 to FES '23, in 2031:

v1.0: 30/06/2023

v1: Internal revision

v1.2: 03/07/2023

v1.3: 18/07/2023

Building on our initial excel spreadsheet, in versions 1.0 - 1.3:

1. We added ancillary service revenues to the dispatch model, so we now have both

• Merchant only revenues
• And, merchant + ancillary revenues.

2. Fixed a bug in the run hours and generation production figures in the fundamental model outputs (previously these were showing too high due to the way subtypes were being aggregated up)
3. Added some alternative fundamantal low scenarios to the databook:

• Double the DSR, half the price
• Extend CCGT retirement
• Increase gas and carbon pricing by 20%
• Lower the BM dispatch rates