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Using the 2023 FES, with Modo's view, we forecast generation stacks, demand, renewable load factors, and costs.

We use ESO's Future Energy Scenarios (FES) as a starting point - the Consumer Transformation scenario.

Then, we add the Modo view. This means amending it for today's world, adding more storage, and delaying some CCGT plant closures when we don't think there'll be enough capacity (around 2040).

Why Consumer Transformation?

We think this FES scenario most resembles a future grid that makes sense. It describes how we could get to net zero by 2050 by consumers using energy more efficiently and flexibly, via demand-side response and energy storage, rather than building assets out on the supply side. It is also the scenario we consider likelier as it has less hydrogen-fuelled power generation and less CCUS as compared to the 'System Transformation' scenario. With both of these being novel technologies neither proven at scale nor commercially viable (in 2024), we don't want to pin our net-zero hopes (entirely) on them!

Why more storage?

Storage has delivered close to 3GW over the last six years without any technology-specific subsidy. Storage is a leading form of low-carbon flexibility, and we see similar trends globally. Modo Energy's expectation is that storage continues to outperform technologies that have not yet achieved commercial viability on a significant scale - more on this in Inputs: storage.

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Check out the different inputs to the Forecast from the sidebar

  • Demand
  • Capacity Stack
  • Hydrogen
  • Commodity prices
  • Renewable load factors
  • Ancillary services
  • Storage
  • Interconnectors

What’s Next