Heat Pump Demand

With the uptake of EVs and heat pumps expected to accelerate, the shape of demand will change. To capture these changes, we model residential heat pump and EV demand separately from all other demand. This gives a more realistic daily and seasonal demand shape.

Heat Pumps

We base our heat pump demand forecast on half-hourly demand projections for 2050 from this research paper. The original data is calibrated to 2010 temperature profiles. To align it with our forecasting, we scale the demand data to match the temperature profiles of our selected weather year (currently 2018, but removing the infamous cols snap due to 'The Beast from the East').

This demand is then scaled to annual FES heat pump demand forecasts.

The result is a forecast which matches the FES forecast for total annual residential heat pump demand but introduces a more realistic seasonal and daily demand shape.