Macro scenarios v31

Modo forecasts a 'low' case and a 'high' case.

The low case assumes more conservative fundamentals & battery dispatch

• Slow the retirement of unabated gas using more conservative carbon de-rating factors in the future capacity market.
• Apply a 15% reduction to gas and carbon pricing along the curve reduces power prices and spreads,
• More, cheaper Demand Side Response, acting as a competitor to battery energy storage.
• Reduce battery dispatch rates in the Balancing Mechanism due to a slower roll out of software updates in the open balancing platform (see below)
• Reduce the revenue uplift due to intraday trading actions.
• Assume the asset is performing at the 25 percentile of the fleet rather than the median, using the calibration factors with the Modo benchmark.

The high case assumes more optimistic battery dispatch

• Increase Balancing Mechanism dispatch by assuming that the competition from other BM units is reduced by half.
• Increase the uplift due to intraday trading actions.
• Assume the asset is performing at the 75 percentile of the fleet rather than the median, using the calibration factors with the Modo benchmark.