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Introduction to our forecasting
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GB Methodology
Introduction to our forecasting
Inputs
Demand
Electric Vehicle Demand
Heat Pump Demand
Building the capacity stack
Capacity inputs
Hydrogen
Commodity pricing
Renewable load factors
Generation costs
Ancillary services
Storage
Interconnectors
Capacity Expansion Model
Cashflow calculation
Estimating capital and operating costs
New-build, Retrofit, and Retirement Decisions
Fundamentals model to 2050
Modelling thermal short run marginal costs
GB price, modelled without storage or interconnection
Modelling the storage fleet
Interconnection
Ancillary service pricing
The Capacity Market
Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS)
Embedded Export Tariffs
Wider generation TNUoS forecasts
Distribution Use of System (DUoS)
Intraday prices
Model intraday forecast errors
Modelling unplanned plant outages
Modelling other impacts to intraday pricing
Battery dispatch model
Modelling different dispatch strategies
Day-ahead and frequency response revenues
Assumptions in our dispatch model
Frequency Response market saturation
Intraday Revenues
Optimising battery dispatch in intraday markets
Assumptions behind intraday optimisation
Battery degradation
Solar co-located revenues
Balancing Reserve
Modelling the Balancing Mechanism
Transmission constraints in Great Britain
Modelling bid-offer prices
Battery revenues in the Balancing Mechanism
Modelling balancing volumes
Assessing competition within the Balancing Mechanism
Dispatch rates of batteries
Modelling battery optimisation within the BM
Locational differences in BM dispatch
Scenario modelling (worldviews)
Model calibration
Run library
Running a forecast
Location
Backtest
Forward curves
Bankability
Historic performance
Large >300MW BESS sites
Small <10MW BESS sites
Glossary
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ: General
FAQ: Fundamentals model
FAQ: Dispatch model
FAQ: Network Charges
FAQ: Results
FAQ: Backtest and Calibration
FAQ: Model Update Livestreams
Q3 Model update V3.1
Q4 Model update V3.2
FAQ: Financing renewable assets
Standalone solar forecast
Solar generation profile
Modo generated P50 solar generation profile
Upload your own solar generation file
Capturing cannibalisation
Calculating solar revenues
Calculating performance metrics
Calculating lost revenues
Calculating total revenues
Output file glossary
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