Commodity pricing

Commodity prices for gas, coal, biomass, hydrogen and renewable energy guarentee of origin certificates are forecast using a combination of

• Modo short-term projections;
• Current forward curves;
• And, longer term FES projections.

Graphs below are illustrative; the summary numbers are available to download in our scenario databook for forecast subscribers.

 Hydrogen costs

Hydrogen costs are projected using the Modo Energy hydrogen model. This accounts for production, storage and transportation costs. Below shows our model for Grey (hydrogen made from steam-methane reformation), Blue (steam-methane reformation with CCS) and Green (via electrolysis using renewable energy).

Carbon costs

 REGO prices

We forecast Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) prices to fall as renewable energy capacity increases. This is because the marginal price of more renewable power falls away as we get to net zero.

Summary of commodity prices

Gas, coal, biomass and hydrogen prices (shown in £/MWh) are shown below.

Prices are annual, but we inject seasonality into the gas and hydrogen curves to reflect the annual impact of supply and demand on prices. Gas prices for 2024-2029 are based on the CME forward curve taken on 28th August 2024.

Conversion factors

£/tonne -> £/MWh for coal: this unit conversion gives a factor of 8.14MWh/tonne.