Introduction

A radically different battery revenue forecast

• Built in-house: our entirely new model built from the ground up gives a fresh view of future revenues for battery energy storage.
• Data-driven for storage: we use our industry-leading view of today to model storage for tomorrow and beyond to give you a data point per half-hour to 2050.
• Transparent: inputs are based on ESO's Future Energy Scenarios (consumer transformation) blended with the Modo view. We share these. Plus, our model and method are presented here.
• Fixed generation capacities: rather than allowing them to vary within the model, we fix the buildout capacities (GW) of gas / solar / wind / storage etc., and check the results are 'sensible'. The world isn't perfectly economical, and it means we can model potential scenarios such as '10% more solar'.

What does 'sensible' mean?

1. The consumer must face a realistic price for wholesale power.
2. There cannot be an expectation for large periods with loss of load e.g., 20hr+
3. Power prices should decline with wind & solar growth.
4. Minimum prices will find a floor at £0/MWh as subsidy regimes expire

The model consists of three parts

This guide goes into some detail on each part. Use the sidebar to navigate to the bit you're interested in!