Inputs: demand
In the last few years, demand has gone down. In future, it will go up as energy use is increasingly electrified.
We look at the changing shape of demand over the last 15 years: generally, we've been using less electricity. Daily and yearly minimums have been decreasing (as have the peaks). But, with the electrification of heat and transport, this is expected to change, and demand will go up.
We use the FES numbers for demand (without losses) for minimum and maximum demand in the year. These dictate the winter peak (when demand is highest) and the 2 pm summer Sunday minimum (when demand is lowest). Then we build a half-hourly demand shape around these based on a time-series analysis of historic data.
We model demand without embedded generation.
That's because it exists in the supply stack, and we don't want to double-count it. We also model it without losses - i.e. demand represents what all the generators on the system need to produce.
We don't see a dip in the middle of the day - that comes later once we add embedded solar in.
Updated over 1 year ago