26th September 2023

There are some big changes to the Modo Forecast

We've just done a major release, moving from v1 to v2.

This includes sweeping changes to the way you interact with the forecast, and expanding on what scenarios and site configurations are available.

We have added the forecast to the Modo platform, rather than being in an excel file.
We have added a host of new site configurations, including co-location with solar sites.
As well as the possibility to run a 'Custom Run' if none of the 600+ runs are quite right.

And, there are changes to the forecast numbers themselves:

We updated our input numbers in line with FES 2023's release as v1 was using FES 2022.

You can now find a library of runs under 'Forecasting' on the platform

You can apply filters to quickly and easily find the site configuration and setup you'd like, and hit download.

There are over 600 runs to choose from

We now run the forecast in the cloud. What that means is we're able to run a huge number of different site setups, with different fundamentals models - many more than before!

Choose between 1, 2 and 4 hour duration batteries; a maximum of 1 or 2 cycles per day, the 14 different Distribution Network regions in GB, a distribution or transmission connection, degraded or not (and 3 different re-powering options with our standard degradation profile) and from our 8 different fundamental scenarios:

Central
Low (delayed CCGT retirement, reduced BM dispatch, increased demand response uptake, low gas and carbon prices)
High (increased BM dispatch, reduced demand response uptake, high gas and carbon prices)

All files show merchant, ancillary + merchant revenues, split out by month, from 2023 - 2050, with the details of the scenario and site configuration at the top of the csv file.

And co-location is now one of them!

There are currently two runs in the run library of co-located revenues.

More information about the model used to estimate revnues from a site with solar and storage is in our methodology.

Custom runs are now possible

In case you can't find the site setup you're after in our standard run library, you can create a custom run.

This opens up a handy type form to tell us exactly what you'd like, and we'll take it from there.

Any questions with how to use a Custom Run? Reach out to our sales team - ed@modo.energy

We've also updated our inputs to align with the FES 2023 release

ESO launched their 2023 Future Energy Scenarios in July 2023 so we've taken their updates to capacity build out, gas and carbon pricing, and demand from the 'Consumer Transformation' scenario and incorporated them into our model numbers.

There is less biomass and gas CHP, and slightly less wind in the FES 2023 numbers, which has increased scarcity on the system in the early years of the forecast
In later years, we have more hydrogen peakers and low-priced DSR
This has the impact of higher scarcity, and therefore higher battery revenues to 2035. After that, revenues drop relative to v1.0 as more flexibility from hydrogen peakers and DSR in later years drives down battery revenues.

For example, this table shows the percent change in generator type going from FES '22 to FES '23, in 2031:

Type	FES 22 to FES 23: % change for 2031
Biomass	-48%
DSR	-14%
Drax	+2%
Gas CCGT	+3%
Gas CHP	-37%
Gas OCGT	-7%
Gas Recip Engine	0%
H2 Peaker/Other	+21%
Hydro	-6%
Nuclear	0%
Offshore Wind	-10%
Onshore Wind	-6%
Other Renewables	+20%
Solar	-1%
Waste	-2%
Waste CHP	-94%