# Documentation for the Modo GB Forecast Documentation

> Documentation and methodology for the Modo GB Forecast.

Append .md to any documentation page URL to get its markdown version.

## Guides
- [Introduction to our forecasting](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/introduction.md): Welcome to the methodology for the Modo GB Forecast.
- [Inputs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs.md): Using the 2023 FES, with Modo's view, we forecast generation stacks, demand, renewable load factors, and costs.
- [Demand](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/demand-copy.md): In the last few years, demand has gone down. In future, it will go up as energy use is increasingly electrified.
- [Electric Vehicle Demand](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/electric-vehicle-demand.md)
- [Heat Pump Demand](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/heat-pump-demand.md)
- [Building the capacity stack](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/capacity-stack-v3.md): How we decide the future capacity stack
- [Capacity inputs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/capacity-inputs-copy-2.md)
- [Hydrogen](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs-hydrogen.md): We have no baseload hydrogen, only peaking.
- [Commodity pricing](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/commodity-pricing-copy-2.md)
- [Renewable load factors](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs-renewable-load-factors.md): It's all very well having an installed capacity, but the sun and wind are intermittent. And they massively impact power prices. What do we do to forecast actual generation?
- [Generation costs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs-generation-costs.md): Each generation sub-type has a cost of generating power, positive or negative!
- [Ancillary services](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs-ancillary-services.md): Generation also needs to balance the grid
- [Storage](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/storage-copy.md): There is 80GW of energy storage on the system by 2050
- [Interconnectors](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/inputs-interconnectors.md): Great Britain's electricity system is connected to it's neighbouring countries via interconnectors. When factored into the supply stack, this impacts price.
- [Capacity Expansion Model](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/capacity-expansion-model-copy-1.md)
- [Cashflow calculation](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/cashflow-calculation.md)
- [Estimating capital and operating costs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/estimating-capital-and-operating-costs.md)
- [New-build, Retrofit, and Retirement Decisions](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/new-build-retrofit-and-retirement-decisions-are-technology-specific.md)
- [Fundamentals model to 2050](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/fundamentals-model.md): How we build a half-hourly price model for the day-ahead GB power market.
- [Modelling thermal short run marginal costs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/s-curve-v3.md)
- [GB price, modelled without storage or interconnection](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/gb-price-without-storage-copy.md): First of all, for each half hour, we create a supply curve and overlay demand. The marginal unit sets the price.
- [Modelling the storage fleet](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-storage-v3.md): Storage charges when it's cheap, and discharges when it's expensive. This smooths extreme prices.
- [Interconnection](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/interconnection-copy.md): GB imports and exports power with our neighbours and this impacts price
- [Ancillary service pricing](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/ancillary-service-pricing-copy-1.md): Dynamic Containment, Moderation and Regulation as well as Balancing Reserve.
- [The Capacity Market](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/the-capacity-market-copy-1.md): The CM dictates the generation stack
- [Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS)](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/transmission-network-use-of-system-tnuos-copy.md): TNUoS charges depend on the grid connection, asset size, and duration.
- [Embedded Export Tariffs](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/embedded-export-tariffs.md): These tariffs only apply to distribution-connected batteries with a capacity below 100MW.
- [Wider generation TNUoS forecasts](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/wider-generation-tnuos-forecasts-copy.md)
- [Distribution Use of System (DUoS)](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/distribution-use-of-system-duos.md): DNOs in GB charge DUoS fees for assets that consume and / or export electricity.
- [Intraday prices](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/intraday-model.md): How we build an intraday price forecast
- [Model intraday forecast errors](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/intraday-model-copy.md): Forecast errors lead to discrepancies between planned asset behaviours and therefore price at day ahead, versus intraday.
- [Modelling unplanned plant outages](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-unplanned-plant-outages.md)
- [Modelling other impacts to intraday pricing](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/capturing-real-trading-behaviour.md)
- [Battery dispatch model](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/battery-dispatch-model.md): How do we dispatch a battery against a price signal?
- [Modelling different dispatch strategies](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-different-risk-appetites-copy.md): Merchant only or merchant & ancillary?
- [Day-ahead and frequency response revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-day-ahead-and-frequency-response-revenues-copy.md): Our battery dispatch tool creates a charge/discharge schedule from wholesale prices & handles ancillary services
- [Assumptions in our dispatch model](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/assumptions-in-our-dispatch-model.md): We make various assumptions and respect the rules to decide what the battery does
- [Frequency Response market saturation](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/frequency-response-market-saturation.md): Frequency Response contracts will get harder to come by
- [Intraday Revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/intraday-prices-copy.md): The dispatch model that uses forecast intraday prices to generate a battery intraday revenue forecast
- [Optimising battery dispatch in intraday markets](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/optimising-for-intraday-markets.md)
- [Assumptions behind intraday optimisation](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/assumptions-behind-intraday-optimisation.md)
- [Battery degradation](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/battery-degradation-copy.md): As batteries cycle, they degrade. This means the amount of energy they store reduces over time.
- [Solar co-located revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/co-located-revenues.md): Optimizing the day-ahead revenues of a solar + battery storage co-located site
- [Balancing Reserve](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/balancing-reserve-v31.md)
- [Modelling the Balancing Mechanism](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-the-balancing-mechanism-copy.md): The BM is a big part of future battery revenues
- [Transmission constraints in Great Britain](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/transmission-constraints-for-the-bm-copy.md)
- [Modelling bid-offer prices](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-bid-offer-prices.md)
- [Battery revenues in the Balancing Mechanism](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/dispatch-rates-in-the-balancing-mechanism.md)
- [Modelling balancing volumes](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-balancing-volumes.md)
- [Assessing competition within the Balancing Mechanism](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/assessing-competition-within-the-balancing-mechanism.md)
- [Dispatch rates of batteries](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/dispatch-rates-of-batteries.md)
- [Modelling battery optimisation within the BM](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/modelling-battery-optimisation-within-the-bm.md)
- [Locational differences in BM dispatch](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/locational-bm-dispatch-differences.md)
- [Scenario modelling (worldviews)](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/macro-scenarios-copy.md)
- [Model calibration](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/model-calibration-copy-1.md): Taking our fundamentals model back to reality
- [Running a forecast](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/custom-runs.md): For a truly bespoke forecast, we can complete custom runs for you to match the exact configuration of your site.
- [Location](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/map-of-gsp-regions-and-constraint-boundaries.md)
- [Backtest](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/backtest-copy.md): How does the model compare to reality, when we look at historic day-ahead prices?
- [Forward curves](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/forward-curves.md)
- [Bankability](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/bankability.md)
- [Historic performance](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/historic-performance.md): How has the Modo BESS revenue forecast performed against reality over the last year?
- [Large >300MW BESS sites](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/large-300mw-bess-sites-copy-1.md)
- [Small <10MW BESS sites](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/small-bess-sites.md)
- [Glossary](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/glossary.md): List of terms and a few acronyms that might have crept in to the methodology
- [Frequently Asked Questions](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/frequently-asked-questions.md)
- [FAQ: General](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-general.md)
- [FAQ: Fundamentals model](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq.md)
- [FAQ: Dispatch model](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-dispatch-model.md)
- [FAQ: Network Charges](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-network-charges.md)
- [FAQ: Results](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-results.md)
- [FAQ: Backtest and Calibration](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-backtest-and-calibration.md)
- [FAQ: Model Update Livestreams](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/faq-model-update-webinars.md)
- [Q3 Model update V3.1](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/q3-model-update-v31.md): Here we outline the key questions asked during our Q3 model update webinar.
- [Q4 Model update V3.2](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/q4-model-update-v32.md)
- [FAQ: Financing renewable assets](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/financing-renewable-assets.md)
- [Standalone solar forecast](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/introduction-to-our-solar-model.md)
- [Solar generation profile](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/generating-a-load-profile.md): Solar revenue forecasts start with a solar generation profile
- [Modo generated P50 solar generation profile](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/pvlib.md)
- [Upload your own solar generation file](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/input-file-pv-syst.md): If you've got your own solar generation forecast, it can be easily ingested by our model
- [Capturing cannibalisation](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/capturing-cannibalisation.md)
- [Calculating solar revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/calculating-solar-revenues.md)
- [Calculating performance metrics](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/calculating-performance-metrics.md)
- [Calculating lost revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/calculating-lost-revenues.md): Potential revenues are lost during periods of negative power prices and solar clipping
- [Calculating total revenues](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/calculating-total-revenues.md): How we calculate each revenue line in our outputs
- [Output file glossary](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/docs/solar-forecast-output.md): Quick cheat sheet explaining all columns in our stand alone solar output files

## Changelog
- [v3.5 release: changes since v3.4](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/v35-release-changes-since-v34.md)
- [v3.4 release: changes since v3.3](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/v34-release-changes-since-v33.md)
- [v3.3 release: changes since v3.2](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/v33-release-changes-since-v32.md)
- [v3.2 release: changes since v3.1](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/v32-release-changes-since-v31.md)
- [v3.1 release: changes since v3.0](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/v31-release-changes-since-v30.md)
- [v3 release: changes since v2.4](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/changes-v24-v3.md)
- [v2.4 release: changes since v2.3](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/changes-v23-v24.md)
- [v2.3 release: changes since v2.2](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/changes-v22-v23.md)
- [Changes v2.1 - v2.2](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/forecast-update-v22.md)
- [Changes v2.0 - v2.1](https://forecastdocs.modoenergy.com/changelog/changes-v20-v21.md)