Half-hourly wholesale prices

After storage and interconnectors are added into the supply stack we get our half-hourly GB wholesale prices.

We arrive at our final half-hourly wholesale prices after storage and interconnectors have been added into the supply stacks. Average prices decrease with time, with increased solar and wind growth, whilst daily spreads gradually decrease to £60/MWh.

Are these prices sensible?

  • The prices should be high enough that no technology that continues to be built is loss-making.
    • We have checked the IRRs of the technologies in our capacity stack, to make sure that our buildout assumptions hold.
    • We find reasonable IRRs, in line with our capacity buildout, for all technologies except for Hydrogen Peakers - where there are still many unknowns.
  • There cannot be large periods of time with loss-of-load and blackouts, this would not be accepted by the public.
    • Our Central scenario has zero hours of loss-of-load.